Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia is analyzing this morning's March jobs report and the news that first-time unemployment claims hit another record last week due to widespread business closures stemming from the coronavirus.
"Unemployment numbers for last week were absolutely astounding," Celia said. "I had predicted upwards of 6 or 7 million—at least—making unemployment claims, while others were predicting 3.3 million, which was odd. We heard the incredible number of 6.6 million first-time unemployment claims. On top of that, we have U.S. job losses and unemployment much higher than the March report shows. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to an official 4.4% in March, up from 3.5%. This unemployment rate as of the end of March, which means now we are probably sitting somewhere between 8% and 11% as the real unemployment rate at this time, is certainly not even close to where we are right now, let alone where we'll be at the end of April. The U.S. economy officially lost 701,000 jobs in March.
"This unemployment number," Celia continued, "is the tip of the iceberg from an economic impact. It is a huge problem, and it's just the beginning. But I can't help but think of how bad this could have been had our economy not been so strong at the beginning of this. Some other countries are not as fortunate. We haven't even begun to see the global impact of this crisis. Emerging market countries will really begin to see the brunt of this, and it is likely to be most damaging to these emerging market countries. They don't have the resources or the ability to fight this like some other countries. Then for some developed nations, such as the South America nations, it's just getting started. We could see millions and millions of people unemployed. Italy is being decimated, and that certainly is impacting the entire Eurozone. After all, it's the third-largest economy in the Eurozone. So we haven't begun to see the impact of this."
Celia noted that he had said earlier in the week that there would be more bad news, and he thought it was naïve, at best, for some economists and analysts to talk about a bottom being reached.
"We're not even close to that," he added. "There will be more bad news. I don't know exactly what it will be or exactly what it will look like, but there certainly will be more bad news. Now, there is no magic formula here or past history to draw upon. The only silver bullet that could change the trajectory is a vaccine or a treatment that works consistently. This is a huge economic issue and will continue to be. But keep in mind, this is not like anything we've ever seen. This is not a financial crisis or an economic crisis. We are going to recover. And I know it's hard to believe, but it's a one-off black swan. It's never happened before. We don't know how to handle it. We're not sure how to react. We will have a U-shaped recovery, but the question is, how long will the bottom of that 'U' last? I don't think we'll know much more next week than we do right now."
Celia discusses these and other global and economic headlines on his daily, three-hour Financial Issues program, heard on more than 660 radio stations and several television networks nationwide, including FISM.TV, viewed on several post-cable television platforms and online.
Read more about Celia, FISM and Financial Issues or visit the FISM website, its Facebook page, on YouTube at Financial Issues With Dan Celia or on Twitter @financialissues; download the FISM app here.
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